5/5/2005
Infinite horizon
Bruce Bartlett wrote last week in the Moonie Times about the importance of looking beyond the 75-year Social Security Trustees’ projection. Way beyond:
Last year, the actuaries, who actually write the trustees reports, made an important methodological change. Historically, they presented financial data for 75 years out. But some trustees felt it would be more informative if perpetual costs could be summarized in present value terms…. Starting with Social Security, which President Bush repeatedly says is in precarious financial condition, we see the present value of all the program’s future costs minus expected taxes in perpetuity is estimated at $13.7 trillion.
Now, we have mocked this “infinite horizon” number many times, and for good reason. Even the 75-year projection locks in certain economic variables, like Depression-era wage growth and Buchanan-style immigration, at absurdly dour levels. (A slight improvement in growth over the pessimistic projection at any time in the future can ensure full scheduled benefits.) The “infinite horizon” projection locks in these numbers forever. Yeah, eternity.
Of course, this doesn’t take into account the effects on our economy when the sun turns into a “red giant” in approximately five billion years. And I’m shocked that this document attacks “people of faith” by ignoring the workforce consequences of rapture. The American Academy of Actuaries have called the number almost meaningless.
But those flaws aside, using the “infinite horizon” does lend itself to an almost painless “solution” to the infinite shortfall. Take that number – $11 trillion or $13.7 trillion, or whatever, it doesn’t really matter. Now, my plan is that every year, we pay a dollar towards financing full benefits. We should have that number paid off in just 13.7 trillion years – well within the “infinite horizon"!

