Well, they’ve done it. A group of swingers, seven brides for seven brothers – er, seven Dems and seven Republicans joined hands and effectively siezed power by this opportunity for leverage. Technically they only needed six each – to reduce pro-nuclear forces to 49 from the 55-member Republican caucus, and to reduce the filibuster force to 39 from the 44+1 Dems ‘n’ Jeffords caucus.

The group: Democrats Ben Nelson (hanging on to his seat by a hair), Ken Salazar (who has to streetfight James Dobson back in Colorado), old-timers Byrd and Inouye, and Dixiecrats Mary Landrieu and Mark Pryor. Republicans McCain, Chafee, Snowe, and Collins were already against the nuclear option; add in conservatives John Warner ("Virginia ham") and Lindsey Graham, who have a bit of self-respect, and swing-state Ohio’s Mike DeWine. And representing the “other” party: Joe Lieberman. Way to go Joe. (Notably absent were Arlen Specter, who opposed what he called either the “nuclear constitutional option” or the “constitutional nuclear option,” and Chuck Hagel, John Sununu, and Lisa Murkowski, who were thought to be the swing votes.)

The deal: Dems agree not to filibuster except under “extraordinary circumstances.” Republicans agree not to go nuclear unless they disagree on “extraordinary circumstances” (like the current situation, really). The White House, which didn’t sign the agreement, is encouraged to seek the advice of the Senate before requesting its consent.

Dems stop filibustering Janice Rogers Brown, Priscilla Owen, and William Pryor, and Republicans yield on William Myers and Henry Saad.

The spin

Howard Dean: “I would be hesitant to say it’s a win for the Democratic Party. [… That won’t become clear until] we find out if the president consults with the Democrats” on future judicial nominees.

Sen. George Allen (R-wants-to-be-president): “This so-called deal is disappointing for all of us who believe in the principle that persons should be accorded the fairness and due process of an up or down vote. Everyone should also clearly see that ultimately, nothing has been settled when a vacancy arises on the U.S. Supreme Court.”

Sen. Harry Reid: “There is good news for every American in this agreement. The so-called ‘nuclear option’ is off the table. This is a significant victory for our country, for democracy, and for all Americans. Checks and balances in our government have been preserved…. I offered Senator Frist several options similar to this compromise, and while he was not able to agree, I am pleased that some responsible Republicans and my colleagues were able to put aside their differences and work from the center.”

Sen. Bill Frist (R-never-gonna-be-president-now): “[T]his agreement announced tonight falls short of that principle [of up-or-down votes]. It falls short. It has some good news, and has some disappointing news, and will require careful monitoring…. I have made it clear from the outset that I haven’t wanted to use the constitutional option, I do not want to use the constitutional option, but bad faith and return to bad behavior during my tenure as Majority Leader will bring the Senate back to the point where all 100 members will be asked to decide whether judicial nominees deserve a fair up or down vote. “

The Moonie Times news report – headline “7 Republicans abandon GOP on filibuster”: “The deal leaves [Frist] essentially powerless to ban filibusters against judicial nominees before a fight over a Supreme Court nomination – at least one of which is expected this summer. “

Sen. Russ Feingold (D-hope-he-runs-for-president): “Confirming unacceptable judicial nominations is simply a green light for the Bush administration to send more nominees who lack the judicial temperament or record to serve in these lifetime positions.”

James Dobson, Focus on the Family: ” “This Senate agreement represents a complete bailout and betrayal by a cabal of Republicans and a great victory for united Democrats…. We are grateful to Majority Leader Frist for courageously fighting to defend the vital principle.”

People for the American Way: “The unprincipled nuclear option has been averted. This is a major defeat for the radical right…. It is a rejection of White House demands for virtually unlimited power to undermine the independence of the courts. Nonetheless… We are deeply concerned that it could lead to confirmation of appeals court judges who would undermine Americans’ rights and freedoms.”

Gary Bauer, American Values: “This is a sad day for our nation. The desire of millions of Americans to restore balance to our federal courts has been thwarted behind closed doors by 14 senators. Only three of President Bush’s appointees are guaranteed an up or down vote under this sell out…. The Republicans who lent their names to this travesty have undercut their President as well as millions of their most loyal voters. Shame on them all.”

Alliance for Justice: “While Alliance for Justice has no interest in seeing the Senate break down, we are very disappointed with the decision to move these extremist nominees one step closer to confirmation.”

What to make of it

A large part of this administration’s political power comes from a kind of total war procedure: never admit mistakes, push for absolute victory (annihilation, as Clausewitz called it), and quietly but firmly invoke the infallibility of God. As we noted in this week’s debunker, the “nuclear option” depended how much apocalyptic fervor Republicans could whip up over Senate rules. Now, their momentum has stalled. They can no longer credibly say Democrats are way out of line – since prominent Republicans have managed to find some common ground.

But the agreement, while stopping the current putsch and horse-trading the current set of nominees, leaves the whole framework of the showdown perfectly intact for the main event, the Supreme Court confirmation battle(s) ahead. The American attention span will lapse, and when the time comes, the right will attempt the same damn “crisis” mode.

Question 1 is what precedents will be set for “extraordinary circumstances.” Brown, Owen, and Pryor all got a bye and will almost certainly be confirmed. I have a difficult time imagining someone more “extraordinarily” radical and inappropriate than Janice Rogers Brown, she of Social-Security-is-socialist-revolution fame. This was the worry of Mark Schmitt at the Decembrist, although he has since changed his mind.

Question 2 is what will happen to the power-hold the far right has over the Republican caucus today. Bill Frist, who has been brown-nosing them like mad in order to build his Bush-like presidential bid, has lost in an important way. Even if Dobson kindly salutes his sticking to his guns, the far right may conclude he bungled the whole thing by waiting so long.

And the emergence of this crew of self-styled moderates might just signal a reorganization of Senate power. In particular, South Carolina’s cherubic bachelor Lindsey Graham hinted that these same senators might have a Social Security deal in the works. (Ugh.) Graham is a solid Gingrich-revolution conservative with a reputation for honesty and deal-making, deserved or not. He and McCain might – just might – wrest substantial control from the Frist / Santorum / Allen wing.

But that’s as much wishful thinking as dreaming that any Republicans would risk voting down in their precious “up-or-down votes,” another hint dropped by Graham.

In reality – this is closer to a defeat for the independent judiciary than a victory. As one T.A. Frank writes in the New Republic (via the American Prospect), we have succumbed to the #1 overriding myth of this whole farce. (Number 2 was the “liberal activist judge” crisis.) We admitted that there was something unprecendented about objecting to ten out of over 200 judges. I haven’t seen a really good analysis of all the numbers of all historical nominees who were stalled, blue-slipped, blocked, voted down, filibustered, or whatever – but this has got to be the luckiest president in a long time. His men and women get a walk from the Senate; now, they’ve magnanimously allowed us – 45% of the Senate and about half the country – some sway on just two?

Give me a break. The farce continues.